Housing Market Archives - The Negotiator The essential site for residential agents Tue, 23 Jan 2024 18:23:06 +0000 en-GB hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.2 Fancy that! Damage to sales market from high interest rates ‘overestimated’ https://thenegotiator.co.uk/damage-to-property-market-from-high-interest-rates-overestimated/ https://thenegotiator.co.uk/damage-to-property-market-from-high-interest-rates-overestimated/#respond Wed, 24 Jan 2024 05:30:29 +0000 https://thenegotiator.co.uk/?p=152103 On average sellers across the UK achieved 96.6% of their original asking price, a decrease from the 99.4% achieved in 2022.

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TwentyCI 2023 report front cover.

The negative effects of higher mortgage rates on affordability were overestimated throughout 2023 with house prices dropping 1-2% rather than the forecast 6%, research from TwentyCi reveals.

Its latest Property and Homemover Report shows new instructions were up by 2% compared to 2022 and continued to average around 400,000 per quarter.

CORE OF ACTIVITY

Although a proportion of these new listings were a consequence of homeowners struggling to afford increased mortgage payments and therefore downsizing or selling up, there was still a substantial and solid core of activity.

On average, sellers across the UK achieved 96.6% of their original asking price, a decrease from the 99.4% achieved in 2022 and dropped by 20% to around one million sales – similar to pre-pandemic levels – with fall throughs have declining 14% year on year.

Alex Bannister, Economist

Alex Bannister, Economist

Alex Bannister,  Economist and Independent Board Advisor to TwentyCi, says: “A year ago, the consensus forecast suggested residential property prices in the UK would drop by 6% in 2023 amidst a shrinking economy and a view that property was substantially overvalued.

“In reality, house prices dropped by around 1-2% and the economy skirted recession despite higher-than-expected mortgage rates. Transaction levels dropped by 20% to return to pre-pandemic levels of around 1 million sales in 2023.

OVERESTIMATED

And he adds: “It appears most commentators overestimated the negative effects of higher mortgage rates on affordability and while sellers reduced asking prices, this did little to reverse the pandemic-driven surge.”

“It’s impossible to guess the net effect of events such as the conflicts in Ukraine or the Middle East and a UK general election/related giveaway budget. Assuming these have minimal impact, and the labour market remains robust with inflation under control, there is no obvious trigger for a further reduction in average UK house prices.”

Colin Bradshaw, TwentyCI

Colin Bradshaw, TwentyCi Chief Executive, says: “Many sellers have been overly optimistic about pricing, and it seems the tide is finally changing.

“Mortgage affordability and increased supply are forcing a shift in properties with overinflated pricing.

 “The housing market is holding up rather well despite everything being thrown at it.

I am not saying all is rosy in the garden, rather given the circumstances 2023 could have been a whole lot worse.”

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Big agency swoops to buy Nick Dunning’s Stirling Ackroyd group https://thenegotiator.co.uk/lrg-swoops-to-buy-stirling-ackroyd/ https://thenegotiator.co.uk/lrg-swoops-to-buy-stirling-ackroyd/#respond Tue, 23 Jan 2024 11:02:52 +0000 https://thenegotiator.co.uk/?p=152077 Michael Cook and Leaders Romans Group buy Stirling Ackroyd, Alexander & Co and Peter Ball as part of a major expansion.

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Michael Cook, Leaders Romans Group

Leaders Romans Group has acquired Stirling Ackroyd, Alexander & Co and Peter Ball sales, lettings and surveying businesses.

All branches, operating across London, Surrey, Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire, will continue to trade under their current brands, it has been announced.

CEOs depart

Nick Dunning

Nick Dunning, CEO at Stirling Ackroyd and George Thomas, CEO at Alexander & Co, will leave their respective businesses after a short transition period. All remaining team members will transfer to LRG.

Michael Cook, CEO at LRG (main picture), says: “Starting 2024 with the acquisition of three fantastic, well-known, and respected brands cements our five-year strategy, focusing on growth across the UK.”

Matthew Light, Group Mergers and Acquisitions Director at LRG, says: “Stirling Ackroyd represents our second largest acquisition with 31 branches, with Alexander & Co’s ten branches also joining the LRG group of brands in the same week.”

Stirling Ackroyd is a fantastic business that increases our share of the London market.”

“Stirling Ackroyd is a fantastic business that increases our share of the London market, particularly on the lettings side,” he says.

“The acquisition of Alexander & Co follows a long relationship with George Thomas, which has enabled us to reach an agreement when the time was right for both parties to work together”

Blend

George Thomas, CEO at Alexander & Co, says: “Alexander & Co and Peter Ball are well-established businesses that have been helping people let and buy homes for over 50 years.

“Our three core business values of being personal, proactive and ethical blend perfectly with those of LRG, and I am confident our clients and team will thrive as part of the wider LRG group.”

Nick Dunning snaps up London agent Stirling Ackroyd

Industry giant Leaders Romans Group sold to private equity firm

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New plans for 1% mortgage deals leave property and finance experts divided https://thenegotiator.co.uk/new-plans-for-1-mortgage-deals-leave-property-and-finance-experts-divided/ https://thenegotiator.co.uk/new-plans-for-1-mortgage-deals-leave-property-and-finance-experts-divided/#respond Tue, 23 Jan 2024 05:30:44 +0000 https://thenegotiator.co.uk/?p=152044 Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are said to be considering the move to bolster the chances of first-time buyers getting on the housing ladder.

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Rishi Sunak

Reports that the Government is considering a radical scheme to help first-time buyers by guaranteeing mortgages which would require just 1% deposit have left property and finance experts divided.

The Independent reported at the weekend that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (main picture) and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt were considering the move to bolster the chances of first-time buyers (FTB) – and more importantly younger voters – of getting a foot on the housing ladder by guaranteeing mortgages.

MIXED REACTION

But news of the plans received a mixed reaction.

Ying Tan, Habito

Ying Tan, Habito

Ying Tan, Chief Executive of mortgage broker Habito, says: “This news will certainly grab the headlines and entice younger voters to support the Government.

“At first glance, this is great news. In principle, the more help we can get for first-time buyers, the better.”

But Tan told The Neg that he was concerned how mortgage affordability would be assessed.

“It is pointless only needing a 1% deposit if it’s impossible to borrow the 99% mortgage.

“With a high loan-to-value comes higher risk for the lender, so rates will certainly be more expensive, giving less disposable income to the consumer.”

And he adds: “What we must avoid is reeling first-time buyers in, without thinking about the possible unintended consequences, leading to a potential house price bubble.

“At the end of the day what this government and the next need to do is build more homes that are affordably – it’s simple economics.”

APPROPRIATE CIRCUMSTANCES

Mark Harris, Chief Executive of broker SPF Private Clients, adds: “99% mortgages could be a good idea in the appropriate circumstances.

Mark Harris image

Mark Harris, SPF Private Clients

“With added stamp duty costs, a 99% mortgage can look identical to a 95% mortgage for previous generations. Add in the fact that saving for a deposit while renting is practically impossible, this could be a solution.”

And he says: “There are 100% mortgages available today – for example, Skipton Track Record, which uses the evidence of long-term rent payments as part of its affordability basis and assessment. Also, Barclays Springboard, albeit using equity in a guarantor’s house, so net loan-to-value is lower.

 “Unlike 100% mortgages in the past, lenders now have more stringent assessments to perform to assess affordability and stressing. There is less risk of borrowers over-stretching themselves.

 “Naysayers will no doubt focus on the fact this is a policy to increase demand for housing not supply so inevitably the effect on house prices will be upwards.”

POLITICAL TINKERING

According to David Hannah, Group Chairman of Cornerstone Tax, a 99% mortgage scheme would amount to insufficient ‘political tinkering’ from No.10 to prop up a housing market built on unstable foundations.

david hannah stamp duty

David Hannah, Cornerstone Tax

He says: “These reports of a 99% mortgage loan-to-value mortgage coming from No.10 showcases the utmost desperation from politicians looking for an easy-fix to one of the most prescient issues for young voters, affordability.

“In my view, encouraging first-time buyers to take on increasingly unaffordable debts is not a viable long-term solution to Britain’s housing woes.”

And writing on X, formerly Twitter, Charlie Lamdin, Founder of BestAgent and Presenter of Moving Home with Charlie, wrote: “If they did do this, in debt addiction terms, it would be like giving a heroin addict enough money to get an overdose.

It would puff the market one more time and delay the biggest crash we’ve ever seen.”

“It would puff the market one more time and delay the biggest crash we’ve ever seen. If they do implement it so it’s available from this spring, yes it would change my -35% price fall expectations. The devil would be in the detail as always.” [sic]

Charlie Lamdin, BestAgent

Charlie Lamdin, BestAgent

But Lewis Shaw, owner and Mortgage Expert at Shaw Financial Services, countered that such a scheme ‘could be positive’ – albeit with caveats.

“The single biggest issue most FTBs face is saving the deposit at the same time as paying eye-watering rents.

“If we continue to see an exodus of the BTL market and rebalance in favour of FTBs, it could work as long as underwriting is strict and income multiples are capped to prevent house price inflation.

There will be some house price inflation.”

“It would also need to be exclusively for FTBs and no one else. Yes, there will be some house price inflation; however, it could also stimulate the big house builders to get cracking rather than sitting on land and not building as they are after the closing of HTB.

Lewis Shaw, Shaw Financial Services

Lewis Shaw, Shaw Financial Services

“Owning a home brings a vast range of societal benefits. Countless studies show better health outcomes for homeowners, reduced crime, and better educational outcomes for the children of homeowners; the list goes on and on.

“No, it’s not a silver bullet, and it won’t solve the problems overnight; however, it could be a touchpaper that reverses the homeownership decline, which I believe would be a positive net benefit.

“Yes, it would come with risks. No, it’s not a perfect idea, and yes, if poorly done, it wouldn’t be great.

“However, if it can be structured correctly, it could lift thousands of FTBs from the grips of insecure tenure and poor-quality housing and allow FTBs to break free of the PRS cycle that so many are often trapped in.”

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Vendors realised £103,000 on property sales last year says Hamptons https://thenegotiator.co.uk/vendors-realised-103000-on-property-sales-last-year-says-hamptons/ https://thenegotiator.co.uk/vendors-realised-103000-on-property-sales-last-year-says-hamptons/#respond Mon, 22 Jan 2024 05:30:59 +0000 https://thenegotiator.co.uk/?p=151792 Despite falling prices more than nine out of 10 sellers still sold their home for more than they paid netting themselves just over £100,000.

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For sale boards pictured in Corydon, London, in July 2023.

The average household in England and Wales who bought within the last 20 years and sold in 2023 achieved £102,650 (48%) more than they paid for their property, research from Hamptons reveals today.

Despite falling prices – the figure is down from a record £112,930 in 2022 – more than nine out of 10 (93%) of sellers still sold their home for more than they paid.

SLOWER HOUSE PRICE GROWTH

Slower house price growth in the capital over the last few years has meant that in percentage terms sellers in Wales are now making bigger gains than Londoners.

Sellers across the country made smaller gains in 2023 than those who sold in 2022 when house prices peaked.

Despite this, the average household in England and Wales who bought a property within the last 20 years sold it in 2023 for an average of £102,650 more than they paid, the second-highest figure on record.

Collectively, this means 2023 sellers realised a £103 billion uplift in value between what they paid for their home and what they sold it for.

However, the average gross profit fell by £10,300 or 9% compared to those who sold in 2022.

MORE THAN PAID

Aneisha Beveridge, Head of Research at Hamptons, says: “Despite falling house prices last year, 93% of households still sold their home for more than they paid, netting themselves just over £100k on average.

Aneisha Beveridge, Hamptons

Aneisha Beveridge, Hamptons

“These proceeds are mostly reinvested back into the housing market and go towards the purchase of another home, so they’re rarely realised in cash terms.

“However, the numbers illustrate how the scale of historic price growth sheltered movers last year, freeing up cash to cover moving costs.”

 She adds: “Double-digit house price increases since Covid have meant households moving within two years can achieve a higher price than they paid.  Historically these are people moving due to a change in circumstances.

“However, the spike in the share of households moving within two years goes beyond that and suggests an unwinding of ’the race for space’. Most of these sellers are selling larger homes in the country, often in favour of a move back to the suburbs or city.”

Graph from Hamptons showing average seller prices across England and Wales in 2023.

Source: Land Registry and Hamptons

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Industry boss says home sales market due to ‘return to normal’ this year https://thenegotiator.co.uk/industry-boss-says-home-sales-market-due-to-return-to-normal-this-year/ https://thenegotiator.co.uk/industry-boss-says-home-sales-market-due-to-return-to-normal-this-year/#comments Mon, 22 Jan 2024 05:30:19 +0000 https://thenegotiator.co.uk/?p=151789 Landmark Chief Executive Simon Brown says a high level of listings and cheaper finance means the market could be ready for positive movement.

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simon landmark home sales

Listings in England and Wales remained strong throughout the last quarter of 2023 but subdued market conditions continued to impact transaction pipelines and limited the number of completions, data from Landmark Information Group’s latest Property Trends Report reveals.

Its cross-market data set reveals the willingness of home-movers to progress moves in Q4 2023 and readiness for a market upturn, with listings on a par with the fourth quarter of 2019.

BENCHMARK LEVEL

Bugt Sold Subject to Contract (SSTC) and Completions were down 28% and 38% respectively versus the 2019 benchmark level.

Simon Brown (main picture), Chief Executive of Landmark Information Group, says that the high level of listings, combined with robust December valuation levels (13% higher than Dec 2022) and the resurgence of competitive mortgage deals, paints an encouraging picture for the start of 2024.

He even suggests that the market is poised to return to normal conditions as affordability constraints gradually begin to ease throughout the year.

Brown says: “Over the past 12 months, supply has remained mercifully strong, with 2023 just 0.5% down on volumes seen in 2019 – a year that is universally acknowledged as the last ‘normal’ trading year and a useful benchmark for this report.”

CONSISTENTLY RESTRICTED

“By contrast, the leading transactional indicators that follow, including SSTC / SSTM, searches ordered and completions, have been consistently restricted by at least 30% in England and 10% in Scotland compared to 2019.

“Once the market returns, could this mean that we’ll see a steady flow of previously suppressed transactions progress through the pipeline?

“After a challenging year, the market is ready for more movement.”

He adds: “With lenders starting to compete to offer movers the best deals, we could see transactions progressing and market conditions returning to more normal levels as the pipeline filters through into the second half of 2024.”

Graph showing property transaction pipeline throughout 2023. home sales

Source: Landmark Information Group

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BLOG: ‘Don’t delay’ now is the time for vendors to go for it https://thenegotiator.co.uk/blog-dont-delay-now-is-the-time-for-property-sellers-homeowners-to-go-for-it/ https://thenegotiator.co.uk/blog-dont-delay-now-is-the-time-for-property-sellers-homeowners-to-go-for-it/#respond Mon, 22 Jan 2024 05:30:48 +0000 https://thenegotiator.co.uk/?p=151768 Paul Hilton of ESPC explains why, even in a slightly slower market, homeowners shouldn’t hold off on selling their homes.

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Paul Hilton - ESPC homeowners

Homeowners who are considering moving on to a new property in 2024 are in a powerful position to influence the market, which shouldn’t be underestimated.

While the springtime is traditionally seen as a more favourable time to sell, it’s becoming apparent that choosing to list a property earlier in the year can have huge benefits for homeowners.

Cottoning on

It’s something that buyers and sellers are cottoning on to; ESPC saw higher levels of activity year-on-year during the first days of 2024, hinting that buyers may be engaging with the market in higher numbers, perhaps compounded by the lack of rental properties available, pushing people to buy instead.

Stock levels have increased on espc.com annually by 27%, showing how much choice there is for buyers at every level.

Despite this, according to our latest House Price Report, there is currently lots of competition in the market, even at a typically quieter time of the year.

We can confidently assume that this will only increase as we get closer to the spring.”

We can confidently assume that this will only increase as we get closer to the spring, and as we potentially begin to see lower interest rates and mortgage rates coming through.

In the current climate, and at this time of year, buyers tend to be more serious about making the right purchase. It might take slightly longer for buyers to make an offer, but as a seller, you can feel confident that the offers you receive have been carefully considered and that the buyer is very serious about your property.

Homeowners

There are clear signs that there are first-time buyers coming into the market in higher numbers too; our latest figures show that October was the busiest month of 2023 for flat sales, so sellers should capitalise on the opportunity of having plenty of interested buyers ready and waiting in the market.

Over the past few months, our data has been showing that the figure over valuation that buyers are paying is falling, and while that doesn’t appear to be good news for homeowners looking to sell, those who are vendors looking for their next property should think about it in terms of getting the best deal for their next home.

Our data currently looks very positive for sellers.”

In terms of marketing your property and the price you can expect to achieve, our data currently looks very positive for sellers.

While there was a trend towards fixed-price properties towards the latter half of 2023 which might deter some sellers from acting, our recent data suggests that over 80% of sellers chose to market their home using the ‘offers over’ pricing model during October-December, and on average they achieved 7.2% above their property’s asking price at sale.

Great time

Also, the number of closing dates is currently falling, indicating that sellers are happy to accept a good offer rather than wait for competition to build – meaning that now is a great time to buy.

And of course, the market is a cycle – there are only properties on the market if sellers choose to put them there. So, sellers need to show faith in the market to keep things moving.

Primed

Much of the market is made up of homeowners looking to sell their current home and make an onward purchase, even if the headline focus is always tilted towards first-time buyers.

While the market likely won’t reach the heights we saw post-Covid, it is becoming increasingly stable, and homeowners primed to act quickly can make the most of that with their onward property purchase.

Paul Hilton is CEO of Scottish property portal ESPC

Read more about the housing market.

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One in six ‘seriously considering’ buying a home, new stats reveal https://thenegotiator.co.uk/one-in-six-seriously-consider-buying-a-property-new-stats-reveal/ https://thenegotiator.co.uk/one-in-six-seriously-consider-buying-a-property-new-stats-reveal/#respond Fri, 19 Jan 2024 05:30:27 +0000 https://thenegotiator.co.uk/?p=151708 Research by Cala Homes shows that 16% of Brits believe the time is right to take the plunge into the housing market

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estate agency window property

Around one in every six Brits is now considering buying a property, encouraging new statistics reveal.

A poll of 2,000 adults found 16% are considering purchasing a home now mortgage rates are falling.

And the survey by Cala Homes discovered that 27% of those considering a house move agreed things are looking more positive.

New homes

A fifth of prospective buyers are considering moving in the next 12 months, believing there are more new homes on the market in their area, with 44% of the total sample considering buying a new build when they next move.

People [are] gaining confidence that 2024 could be the right time to move.”

Allan Walker - Cala Homes

Allan Walker, Director of Sales and Transformation, Cala Homes

Allan Walker, Director of Sales and Transformation at Cala, says: “There are signs of optimism in the housing market, with people gaining confidence that 2024 could be the right time to move.

“Buying incentives and stabilising mortgage rates have encouraged the view that the upcoming year holds promise for a more favourable landscape,” he says.

“It seems many are now more inclined to explore opportunities around moving home.”

Property  jargon

However, 61% feel confused by the jargon associated with the home moving process.

Phrases like ‘desk underwriting’, ‘stock plots’ and ‘porting your mortgage’ were found to be among the most perplexing house move terms.

Scratching heads

It also emerged ‘indemnity insurance’, ‘deposit unlock’ and ‘capital gains tax’ have left buyers and sellers scratching their heads.

As a result, 41% admit they have moved home in the past without fully understanding the language used throughout the process.

And 45% of these went on to say because they go through the process so infrequently, it is easy to forget what words and phrases mean.

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Property sales rising as mortgage rates drop, report surveyors https://thenegotiator.co.uk/uk-housing-market-activity-on-the-up-as-mortgage-rate-cuts-continue-rics/ https://thenegotiator.co.uk/uk-housing-market-activity-on-the-up-as-mortgage-rate-cuts-continue-rics/#respond Thu, 18 Jan 2024 05:30:53 +0000 https://thenegotiator.co.uk/?p=151520 RICS UK Residential Survey reveals sales expectations to be picking up for a second consecutive month.

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House prices are expected to remain flat over the next 12 months although buyer enquiries are the least downbeat since April 2022, the latest Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) UK Residential Survey reveals today.

Its December 2023 Survey reports activity picking up as mortgage rates fall with near-term sales expectations moving up while the longer-term outlook points towards a market moving out of negativity and into a flatter environment.

PRICES WILL STABILISE

Survey respondents reckon house prices will stabilise although expectations remains varied across the UK, with respondents from Northern Ireland, the North West of England, and Scotland anticipating higher prices during the next 12 months.

Tarrant Parsons, RICS

Tarrant Parsons, RICS

Tarrant Parsons, RICS Senior Economist, says: “With 2023 proving to be a particularly challenging year for the UK housing market, it appears recent weeks have seen a little bit of respite emerge.

“Supported by an easing in mortgage interest rates buyer demand has now stabilised and this is expected to translate into a slight recovery in residential sales volumes over the coming months.”

But he adds: “The lending climate is set to remain restrictive compared to much of the post global financial crisis era next year, meaning any uplift in activity is likely to be limited for the time being.”

BIG CONCERN

Keith Pattinson, Chairman of Keith Pattinson Estate Agents in Newcastle Upon Tyne, says: “A big concern to anyone is the increase in minimum wage, which is not being related to increased productivity.

Richard Franklin, Franklin Gallimore

Richard Franklin, Franklin Gallimore

“This will cause more unrest, affecting staff and employers. Inflation as costs rise will mean most are worse off.

“There is interference with rental market, unlike other businesses.”

Richard Franklin, Managing Partner of Tenbury Wells-based Franklin Gallimore, adds: “The predictions of a prolonged spell of interest rates at current levels has deterred all but the hardiest buyers.

“Lenders are being the most pedantic I can recall with petty matters inhibiting lending – which I read as ‘we don’t really want to lend at present’”.

TYPICALLY SUBDUED

And  Roger Punch, Consultant at Marchand Petit in South Devon, says: “A typically subdued month, but the sentiment is of mild optimism for the New Year ahead.

Roger Punch, Marchand Petit

Roger Punch, Marchand Petit

“Much will depend of the timing of the General Election, which will, as always, cause a pause in activity in the run-up.

“For now, asking prices need to be generally kept cautious for success.”

Emma Cox, Shawbrook Bank

Emma Cox, Shawbrook Bank

Emma Cox, Managing Director of Real Estate at Shawbrook Bank, says: “The gradual improvement in the market, falling mortgage rates and a rise in tenant demand will provide landlords with confidence in 2024.

“Despite tough economic conditions and uncertainty over the past 12 months, landlords have continued to add to their portfolios to cater for the needs of the rental market, which continues to grapple with a lack of suitable and available properties.”

A chart from RICS showing national sales prices over the last three months.

Source: RICS

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